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Monte Carlo simulation

Also called: success rate, probability of success

Running your plan through many randomly generated market paths. The success rate is the share of those paths in which your money lasted through the end of the plan.

A success rate describes the plan under its own assumptions: fixed rules, no spending adjustments, and the return model you selected. It is not a forecast. A path counted as a failure means the portfolio reached zero before the plan's end age, not that income stopped; Social Security and pensions continue.

RetIQ offers three models: Normal, Historical Bootstrap and a fat-tailed Stress Test.

Sources

RetIQ term — RetIQ User Manual, Monte Carlo Simulation
The current-year figures and the numbers from your own plan appear inside RetIQ. Open the app →

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